Business optimism is returning for small and midsize business leaders at the start of 2026, fueling confidence and growth plans.
The 2026 Business Leaders Outlook survey, released in January by JPMorganChase reveals a turnaround from last June, when economic headwinds and uncertainty about shifting policies and tariffs caused some leaders to put their business plans on hold.
Midsize companies, who often find themselves more exposed to geopolitical shifts and policy changes, experienced a significant dip in business and economic confidence in June of 2025. As they have become more comfortable with the complexities of today’s environment, we are seeing optimism rebounding in the middle market nationwide – an encouraging sign for growth, hiring, and innovation. Small businesses, meanwhile, maintained steady optimism throughout 2025, but they aren’t shielded from domestic concerns. Many cited inflation and wage pressures as the top challenges for 2026 and are taking steps to ensure their businesses are prepared for what’s ahead.
Overall, both small and midsize business leaders are feeling more confident to pursue growth opportunities, embrace emerging technologies and, in some cases, forge new strategic partnerships. That bodes well for entrepreneurs in Minnesota. Here are a few other key findings from the Business Leaders Outlook about trends expected to drive activity in Minnesota this year:
- Despite challenges, leaders are bullish. A good portion of middle market businesses in the Midwest (43%) are optimistic about the national economy, which is higher than optimism among all middle market businesses surveyed (39%), and 41% are optimistic about the local economy.
- For middle market leaders, uncertainty remains an issue. Though the overall outlook is mixed, over half (67%) of Minnesota midsize business leaders agreed the top challenge facing their business in 2026 is uncertain economic conditions.
- Labor is a concern. Going into 2026, labor is a top three concern among business leaders in the Midwest (higher than revenue and sales growth, which was the third nationally). For Minnesota middle market businesses surveyed, government policy changes (other than tariffs) and labor were tied for the top second challenge among 36% of leaders.
- Tariffs are impacting businesses costs. Seventy percent of Minnesota midsize business leaders say tariffs have a negative impact on the cost of doing business, while just 18% say tariffs have had no impact at all.
- Big plans are on the horizon. Forty-three percent of Midwest middle market business leaders are considering M&A as a strategy in the next 12 months, compared to 39% of leaders nationally. Additionally, 41% Minnesota midsize business leaders expect an increase in headcount.
The bottom line
Rebounding optimism among U.S. business leaders at the start of the year is setting the stage for an active 2026. With business leaders looking to implement ambitious growth plans that position themselves for the future, momentum in Minnesota could be beneficial future goals for leaders looking to launch, grow or scale their business this year.
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