
Judging from the brief but furious flurry of recent news and social media reports and rumors about the 2020 presidential campaign, the fate of the election may very well be decided by a previously undetected groundswell of support for President Donald Trump by young Black men.
In the closing days of the campaign, a pair of hip hop artistsâ50 Cent and Ice Cubeâdrew widespread political attention by expressing support for Trump, or at least a willingness to work with him in a second term.
Specifically, 50 Centâborn Curtis James Jackson IIIâendorsed Trumpâs reelection in a Twitter post, saying he feared Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would raise his taxes. âYeah, I donât want to be 20 cent,â he wrote, noting that higher taxes on the rich âis a very, very, bad idea. I donât like it.â
For his part, Ice Cubeâborn O’Shea Jacksonâdidnât exactly endorse Trump. He acknowledged in interviews that he had talked with Trump campaign officials about their interest in his âContract with Black America.â
Ice Cube revealed his 13-point contract in July as a response to the public protests surrounding the police shooting of George Floyd, describing it as âa blueprint to achieve racial economic justiceâ with proposals addressing financial, police, criminal justice and education reforms.
By entertaining a conversation with the campaign concerning his proposals, Ice Cube provided the opening for an advisor to the presidentâs re-election campaign to tweet that the rapper was on board with Team Trump, overstating the reality of the situation.
There is no real objective empirical evidence that 50 Cent and Ice Cube represent widespread Black political thought, or a hidden pocket of pro-Trump activism among Black men. Quite the contrary, they are outliers within the larger Black voting communityâwhich includes young Black menâand they are unlikely to sway a considerable number of Black voters away from the Democratic candidate in the November 3 election.
A study conducted earlier this summer by American Universityâs Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies and School of Communications found that Trump is exceedingly unpopular among Black Americans.
For example, among all of the 1,215 Black American respondents surveyed during early July in six key swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida), only 7% said they intended to vote for Trump and 66% said they planned to vote for Biden.
Among just Black men, 10% said they preferred Trump, a figure that is only slightly higher than the overall support among Black Americans, but far smaller than the 60% of Black men who said they preferred Biden. Almost a third, 29%, of the Black men said they would vote for someone else or didnât know whom they would support.
The findings are consistent with historical Black voting patterns. Indeed, since the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s, Republican presidential candidates have reaped no more than 13% of the African American vote.
According to figures collected and analyzed by the Pew Research Center, Trump collected 8% of the votes cast by Black Americans in 2016, which was slightly better than the 6% that went to GOP nominee Mitt Romney in 2012. Black support for Democratic nominee Barack Obama was unprecedented. He had a 91-point advantage in 2008 and an 87-point advantage in 2012.
More contemporary polling suggests that Trumpâs support among Black Americans will fall in line with historical precedents. As a recent Gallup report noted, itâs âhighly unlikelyâ that this pattern of voting by Black Americans will change during this election.
A recent Sept. 13-16 Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Biden leading Trump among Black voters by 90% to 5%. Gallupâs aggregated data from polls conducted July 30-Aug. 12 and Aug. 31-Sept. 13 show Trump approvalâa rough surrogate for likelihood to vote for Trumpâat 11% among Black Americans, with disapproval at 87%.
And according to a new CBS-BET poll released on October 25, only 8% of likely voters who are Black say they will vote for Trump. Yet, according to the CBS News report on the poll, âHalf of Black seniors say theyâre supporting Biden mainly because they like him, but that [support] drops to 28% among Black Biden voters under 30.â
Rather than a wholesale swing of voter support to Trump or the GOP following 50 Cent and Ice Cube, research suggests many younger African Americansâwith millennial-aged Black men leading the wayâare so disillusioned by politics they may opt out of participating in the election at all. Many Black Americans who are first-timers or relatively new to voting told us in focus group settings that they donât see the point of choosing between the lesser of two evils.
Unlike their parents and grandparents who lived through racial segregation, the Civil Rights Movement, and a racial transformation of American society, young Black people who have come of age in the past 30 years said in focus groups that they have little to nothing that they can cite as examples of progress that can be attributed directly to politics or voting.
It is likely that much of what they have experienced in their lifetimes has been the negative consequences of political stalemate in Washington. These include persistent economic inequality and widening health disparities afflicting their communities.
Crushing student loan debt makes building wealth with the purchase of a home and establishment of savings almost impossible. Perhaps most deadly and dramatic are the resurgent waves of racism and police violence directed at them and their loved ones.
Little wonder, therefore, that some Black menâespecially those who desperately want to engage in politics to improve conditions for themselves and their communitiesâmight seek alternatives to the status quo of politics. It is into that chasm of despair and disillusionment that the Trump campaign seems to be seeking a foothold by making it appear that young Black men are falling in formation with its campaign.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Or as the rappers like to say, âDonât believe the hype.â
Reach the MSR staff at msrnewsonline@spokesman-recorder.com.